January 2026 Update: No Rate Change from Fed

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its January 2026 meeting with no change to the Fed Funds rate, keeping it in the current range of 3.50%–3.75%.

While there has been plenty of public pressure on the Fed to lower rates, today’s decision was not a surprise to the market. In fact, this marks a pause after a series of recent rate cuts and reflects the Fed’s “wait and see” approach as it evaluates where the economy goes next.

Why Didn’t the Fed Cut Rates?

The Fed has two primary goals:

  1. Keep inflation under control

  2. Maintain a healthy job market

To justify additional rate cuts, the Fed needs to see one of two things:

  • A noticeable slowdown in the job market, or

  • Inflation moving convincingly closer to its 2% target

At the moment, neither of these conditions is strong enough to warrant another cut. Employment remains relatively stable, and inflation is easing, but not yet at the level the Fed wants to see.

When Could Rates Start Coming Down Again?

Current market expectations are for two small rate cuts (0.25% each) by the end of 2026, with the first potential cut more likely around mid-year.

That said, future rate decisions will depend heavily on upcoming economic data, especially:

  • Monthly jobs reports

  • Inflation readings

Any surprises in either direction could move rates quickly.

What This Means for Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates don’t move in perfect lockstep with the Fed, but they are heavily influenced by market expectations, inflation trends, and overall economic confidence.

Right now:

  • Mortgage rates may trend modestly lower over time

  • But the market remains highly sensitive and volatile

  • News around inflation or jobs can cause rapid swings

Volatility is the biggest risk for buyers and sellers alike, especially those under contract.

What Should Buyers Do in This Market?

Buyers aren’t shopping for interest rate charts or economic forecasts. They’re shopping for a home that fits their lifestyle, family, and long-term goals.

Even with inventory improving in many markets, the U.S. still faces a long-term housing shortage, which continues to support home values.

The smartest strategy for buyers right now:

  • Buy when the right home comes along

  • Lock in financing once under contract to avoid rate volatility

  • Monitor the market after closing for future refinance opportunities

Trying to perfectly time the market often results in missed opportunities. Elite loan strategies focus on getting buyers into the right home now and optimizing the loan over time.

The Bottom Line

The Fed may eventually cut rates again, but no one can predict the exact timing. What we do know is that waiting on perfect conditions usually costs more than it saves.

The best approach is to make smart, informed decisions based on your personal goals, not headlines.

Ready to Talk Strategy?

If you’re thinking about buying, refinancing, or just want a clear game plan for 2026:

Click here to schedule a call with Mike
Or feel free to call or text me directly at 918-361-1550

We’ll walk through your options, current mortgage rates, and help you decide the best move for your situation; no pressure, just real advice.



Location: Tulsa, OK, USA

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